All Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft have been grounded by US officials after two deadly crashes.
The plane makes up only a small percentage of US air travel, but the move is causing flight cancellations around the country.
The grounding could be good news for competing airlines that fly the same routes with unaffected planes.
The Boeing 737 Max 8, a plane grounded in most of the world including the US following two deadly crashes in five months, doesn't account for much of the US's air traffic, but it could still be good news for carriers looking to snap up market share from competitors whose routes are affected.
Spirit is most likely to benefit, followed by Hawaiian, American, and Alaskan, according to calculations by Joseph DeNardi, an analyst at Stifel.
Southwest, American, and United fly the plane in the US, and the forced grounding has already affected some of their routes. Of the competitors that fly the same routes on unaffected planes, Spirit has the most overlap. That's according to calculations by DeNardi using available seat miles, a key metric watched by airline investors and analysts.
"The data suggests that Southwest's deployment of the MAX is broad and not concentrated in any particular market which results in Spirit having the most overlap with MAX capacity," DeNardi said in a note to clients Thursday. "As a result, we see SAVE as most likely to gain share as a result of what is likely to be less than planned capacity from LUV for as long as the grounding persists."
Southwest launched flights to Hawaii only this month. And while the low-cost carrier isn't running that route with 737 Max 8 aircraft, the long-distance version of Southwest's preferred plane appears to be ripe for the over-ocean route.
"We see Hawaiian as a beneficiary due to (1) likely less capacity from United's 737 MAXs into Hawaii and (2) a delay in additional growth from Southwest," DeNardi said. "Beyond Spirit and Hawaiian, American and Alaska should benefit due to (1) less capacity in Dallas which is a primary market for the MAX helping American's growth later this year into DFW and (2) Alaska benefiting from less capacity into Hawaii."